Antti Ilmanen and Thomas Maloney, from the AQR Portfolio Solutions Group, discuss how investors actually form long-run return expectations.


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Diversifying Alternatives and the Rearview Mirror

Part 10: This paper examines how investor biases and performance-chasing behaviors can undermine the benefits of long/short diversifying alternatives. We explore why such strategies often feel disappointing in bull markets, yet remain vital for long-term portfolio resilience.


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Bond Market Focus: Yield Curves and Mean Reverting Rate Expectations

Part 9: The yield curve largely reflects investors’ tendency to expect rates to revert toward past norms. This paper highlights how this pattern explains both the predictive power and the persistent forecasting missteps in bond markets.


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Bond Market Focus: Understanding Treasury Yields with Survey Data

Part 8: This paper explores how survey data can decompose U.S. Treasury yields into inflation expectations, real rate expectations, and required bond risk premia. The analysis highlights how these components have evolved since the 1980s and the risks posed by today’s policy challenges to anchored inflation expectations.


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Equity Market Focus: Subjective Expected Returns

Part 7: While objective expectations are typically inferred from market prices or yields, subjective expectations are best inferred from survey data. This paper highlights interesting differences across investor groups in their tendency to overextrapolate or to be overoptimistic.


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Equity Market Focus: Objective Expected Returns

Part 6: This paper reviews the strengths and weaknesses of using valuation-based metrics like CAPE and CAEY to estimate long-run equity market returns. While these models remain the most robust objective tools available, their predictive power is nuanced and often overstated.


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Equity Market Focus: Interrogating the Historical Data

Part 5: We discuss how historical average returns can be useful estimates of future expected returns (only) if expected returns are constant and the sample is unbiased.


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How Did We Get Here? A Brief History of Expected Returns Formation

Part 4: We present our history of expectation formation: How have investors formed long-run return expectations over time, and how have academics perceived that investors do it, or ought to do it?


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Why Are Bond Investors Contrarian While Equity Investors Extrapolate?

Part 3: This article explores the contrast in how investors form long-run expectations in equity and bond markets. It also examines very long run trends in financial market variables and potential implications for the future.


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Exceptional Expectations: U.S. vs. Non-U.S. Equities

Part 2: We analyze the persistent outperformance of US equities compared to non-US equities, focusing on the drivers of relative performance, including fundamentals and valuations. We examine historical data, valuation trends, and the implications for future returns, highlighting the potential for mean reversion and the benefits of global diversification.


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How Do Investors Form Long-Run Return Expectations?

Part 1: We provide an overview of the contrasting ways investors form long-run return expectations and examine the tensions between "objective" yield-based expected returns and "subjective" rearview-mirror expectations. We also discuss the dangers of a rearview-mirror mindset and emphasize the importance of forward-looking measures.

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The information in this paper may contain projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future events, targets, forecasts or expectations regarding the strategies described herein, and is only current as of the date indicated. There is no assurance that such events or targets will be achieved, and may be significantly different from that shown here. The information in this document, including statements concerning financial market trends, is based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate and may be superseded by subsequent market events or for other reasons.